Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by 2026?

Market context

Iran currently maintains an enriched uranium stockpile that has grown substantially since the 2015 nuclear deal's collapse in 2018. A "Yes" share in this market pays out if Iran publicly commits—either unilaterally or through negotiation with the US, Israel, or another party—to surrender any portion of that stockpile by 31 March 2026. A "No" share pays out if no such public agreement materialises by that deadline. The market's 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of active negotiations and Iran's historical resistance to surrendering nuclear material without significant concessions.

Comparable precedent exists in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), where Iran agreed to reduce its enriched uranium stockpile by 98% in exchange for sanctions relief. That agreement took months of intensive diplomacy and required Iran to perceive tangible economic benefit. Since the US withdrawal in 2018, Iran has pursued uranium enrichment as leverage in potential future talks. Previous surrender agreements have required either military pressure (as with Libya in 2003) or comprehensive diplomatic frameworks offering security guarantees and economic incentives—conditions currently absent between Iran and Western powers.

Catalysts to monitor include shifts in US foreign policy following elections, Israeli military actions or threats against Iranian nuclear facilities, and any resumption of multilateral talks. Recent statements from Iranian officials have emphasised enrichment as a sovereign right rather than a negotiating position. Any credible announcement of direct US-Iran talks, or a significant change in regional security dynamics, would signal material movement toward the market's resolution criteria.

Methodology

We track Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.