Market statistics
- Total volume
- $5.3M
- 24h volume
- $409K
- Liquidity
- $1.3M
- Open interest
- $2.4M
- Comments
- 48
Available prediction outcomes (15)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from th
Wikipedia Context
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2026 Los Angeles mayoral electionThe 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. Incumbent mayor Karen Bass announced her re-election bid in July 2024.
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2001 Los Angeles mayoral election
The 2001 Los Angeles mayoral election was for a four-year term as mayor of Los Angeles, California. It took place on April 10, 2001, with a runoff on June 5, 2001. Incumbent mayor Richard Riordan was prevented from running for a third term because of term limits. In the election to replace him, then-City Attorney James Hahn defeated Antonio Villaraigosa, the
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1993 Los Angeles mayoral election
The 1993 Los Angeles mayoral election took place on April 20, 1993, with a run-off election on June 8, 1993. This was the first race in 64 years that an incumbent was not on the ballot. It marked the first time in 24 years that retiring Mayor Tom Bradley was not on the ballot, after five consecutive victories starting in 1973. Richard Riordan became the firs
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2009 Los Angeles mayoral electionThe 2009 Los Angeles mayoral election took place on March 3, 2009. Incumbent mayor Antonio R. Villaraigosa was re-elected overwhelmingly and faced no serious opponent. Villaraigosa would have faced a run-off against second place-finisher Walter Moore had he failed to win a majority of the vote. Villaraigosa won the election despite having generally unfavorab
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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