Market statistics
- Total volume
- $3.5M
- 24h volume
- $177K
- Liquidity
- $242K
- Open interest
- $929K
Available prediction outcomes (29)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine. If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Wikipedia Context
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Maine Democratic Party
The Maine Democratic Party is the affiliate of the Democratic Party in the U.S. state of Maine.
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2012 United States presidential election in MaineThe 2012 United States presidential election in Maine took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maine voters chose four electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and
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2008 Maine Democratic presidential caucusesThe 2008 Maine Democratic presidential caucuses took place on February 10, 2008, and had 24 delegates at stake. The winner in each of Maine's two congressional districts received all of that district's total delegates, which totaled 16. Another eight delegates were awarded to the statewide winner, Barack Obama, at the Maine Democratic Party Statewide Convent
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2016 Maine Democratic presidential caucusesThe 2016 Maine Democratic presidential caucuses took place on March 6 in the U.S. state of Maine as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
Methodology
We track Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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