Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have already met in person, with their historic summit taking place in Anchorage, Alaska on 15 August 2025, to discuss the war in Ukraine. This past event fundamentally shapes the current market, where the crowd-implied probability of a *next* meeting by June 2026 sits at 0%. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the specific outcome occurs, while a NO share wins if it does not; here, the NO outcome is overwhelmingly favoured because the leaders have exhausted their immediate diplomatic window without securing a follow-up.

Historically, high-stakes summits between US and Russian heads of state are rare and often fail to produce immediate agreements, as seen when the Alaska summit ended without a formal deal. The cancelled 2025 Budapest summit in Hungary further illustrates the fragility of planned encounters. Traders should monitor official announcements regarding the G7 Summit, where Trump and Putin previously discussed future talks, and watch for any shift in Russia’s cease-fire proposals. Recent reports from Reuters indicate Russia has accused the US of failing to honour understandings from the Alaska meeting, a significant diplomatic friction that likely delays any new in-person engagement.

The settlement window closes on 30 June 2026, and given the current stalemate, the market will likely resolve to “No meeting by June 30”. Key catalysts include scheduled trilateral meetings involving Zelensky, which have been described as unlikely in the near future, and any sudden changes in Ukraine’s territorial concession stance. Without a clear diplomatic breakthrough or a new invitation from a neutral host, the probability of a second in-person meeting remains negligible, making the NO share the logical position for those assessing the real-world trajectory.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.