Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Israel is due to hold its next parliamentary election by 27 October 2026, and this market pays out on the person who is formally sworn in as prime minister afterwards. A YES share wins if the named outcome happens; a NO share wins if someone else is appointed and sworn in, or if no qualifying prime minister is installed by the settlement deadline. Because Israel’s president asks party leaders whom they support before nominating a candidate, the result is often shaped less by the biggest vote share than by coalition arithmetic.

The current 37% implied probability points to a contest that is open rather than settled. Israeli elections often produce fragmented Knessets and post-vote bargaining, so the leading party does not automatically produce the next prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahu remains the incumbent and a familiar coalition anchor, but recent reporting has highlighted a more competitive opposition field. Britannica notes Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot among the main challengers, while a recent Reuters-cited development reported Bennett and Yair Lapid combining forces in a new alliance, with Bennett as the bloc’s candidate. That kind of bloc-building can matter more than raw polling because it may reduce vote wastage and strengthen one nominee in coalition talks.

Traders should watch three things: alliance announcements, Knesset election timing, and whether any bloc can secure explicit support from smaller parties after the vote. Any early election would bring the settlement forward. The key dependency is not just who wins seats, but who can assemble a majority and then receive enough recommendations for the president to nominate them. Interim or caretaker arrangements do not count, so the market only resolves when a new prime minister is actually sworn in.

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Methodology

We track Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.