Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The event is whether the Senate passes a reconciliation bill by 11:59 PM ET on 31 May. In prediction-market terms, a YES share pays out if that happens; a NO share pays out if the Senate does not complete passage by the deadline. Reconciliation is the budget process that lets the Senate pass certain spending or tax measures with a simple majority, rather than the usual 60-vote threshold, so timing and party discipline matter as much as the policy itself.

The current 0% implied probability reflects how little legislative runway remains, but it should be read against a process that has already moved unusually far. The Senate adopted the FY2026 budget resolution on 23 April, and the House completed the same blueprint on 29 April, which unlocked the reconciliation track. Since then, Senate committees have published draft text and the Congressional Budget Office has scored the package, but those steps are only preparatory. Comparable cases show that once a reconciliation bill misses its target floor date, the odds of a clean passage by a fixed deadline fall sharply unless leadership has already lined up an agreed text.

Traders should watch for formal committee filings, a Senate floor schedule, and whether the House and Senate remain aligned on the same version. Reporting from Ballotpedia on 7 May said the Senate committees had released a roughly $72 billion package and that House committees had until 15 May to produce their versions, while leadership was targeting final legislation by 1 June. The key dependency is whether the bill can clear both chambers before the deadline without becoming tied up in amendments, conference negotiations, or a procedural delay on the floor.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.