How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

A share in this market is a straight bet on whether USGS records **at least one** earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher anywhere in the world during the specified US Eastern time window; **YES** pays out if the count is one or more, while **NO** wins only if none are recorded. The market uses the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program search page for settlement, and it can stay open after the end of the event window if a late-reported quake still needs to appear in the catalogue.[7][10]

The current **95% YES** implies traders think a 6.5-plus quake is highly likely before the window closes, which is consistent with how often major earthquakes occur globally. USGS’s 2026 “significant earthquakes” page shows that events at this scale are regular enough to be monitored continuously, and recent worldwide listings include multiple M6.5+ quakes this year, including a June 25 M6.9 near Honshu, Japan.[1][8][3] For context, the June Mindanao quake produced extensive aftershocks, including two magnitude 6.5 events, showing that large events can also generate further qualifying shocks.[12]

For traders, the key catalyst is not a scheduled announcement but the pace of real-time seismic reporting and any USGS revisions. A quake may first appear with a preliminary magnitude, then be adjusted as more data arrive, so late changes can matter for a threshold market like this one.[7][10] Recent daily monitoring also shows why the final day matters: one world report published on 9 August noted no quakes of magnitude 6 or higher in the prior 24 hours, but that snapshot can change quickly if a new event is detected or upgraded later.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.