Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
63% | 37% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
63% | 37% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 63% |
| Steven Fisk | 13% |
| Viktor Hovland | 8% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 6% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 4% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 4% |
| Jordan Spieth | 3% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 2% |
| Wyndham Clark | 2% |
| Cameron Young | 2% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 1% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 1% |
| Sam Burns | 1% |
| Ricky Castillo | 1% |
| Bud Cauley | 1% |
| Eric Cole | 1% |
| Corey Conners | 1% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 1% |
| Harris English | 1% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 1% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 1% |
| Rickie Fowler | 1% |
| Ryan Fox | 1% |
| Ryan Gerard | 1% |
| Chris Gotterup | 1% |
| Ben Griffin | 1% |
| Harry Hall | 1% |
| Brian Harman | 1% |
| Russell Henley | 1% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 1% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 1% |
| Max Homa | 1% |
| Michael Kim | 1% |
| Si Woo Kim | 1% |
| Tom Kim | 1% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 1% |
| Jake Knapp | 1% |
| Min Woo Lee | 1% |
| Shane Lowry | 1% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1% |
| Matt McCarty | 1% |
| Rory McIlroy | 1% |
| Maverick McNealy | 1% |
| Keith Mitchell | 1% |
| Collin Morikawa | 1% |
| Alexander Noren | 1% |
| JT Poston | 1% |
| Aaron Rai | 1% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 1% |
| Justin Rose | 1% |
| Xander Schauffele | 1% |
| Matthias Schmid | 1% |
| Adam Scott | 1% |
| Alex Smalley | 1% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 1% |
| J.J. Spaun | 1% |
| Sam Stevens | 1% |
| Sepp Straka | 1% |
| Nick Taylor | 1% |
| Sahith Theegala | 1% |
| Justin Thomas | 1% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 1% |
| Gary Woodland | 1% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 1% |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% |
| Jackson Koivun | 0% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 0% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 0% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0% |
| Player 0 | 0% |
| Player 1 | 0% |
| Player 2 | 0% |
| Player 3 | 0% |
| Player 4 | 0% |
| Player 5 | 0% |
| Player 6 | 0% |
| Player 7 | 0% |
| Player 8 | 0% |
| Player 9 | 0% |
| Player 10 | 0% |
| Player 11 | 0% |
| Player 12 | 0% |
| Player 13 | 0% |
| Player 14 | 0% |
| Player 15 | 0% |
| Player 16 | 0% |
| Player 17 | 0% |
| Player 18 | 0% |
| Player 19 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 63% YES probability for PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the FedEx St. Jude Championship …
Methodology
We track PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner on Prediction Market UK
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