Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
82% | 18% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
82% | 18% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 82% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 21.5 | 62% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima | 61% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 Winner | 56% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 22.5 | 55% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Match O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Set 2 Winner | 47% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 35% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 33% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 82% probability to mubadala citi dc open: alex de minaur vs brandon nakashima. This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Brandon Nakashima in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Al…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nak… on Prediction Market UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →