Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to mubadala citi dc open, qualification: trevor svajda vs elias ymer. This market refers to the tennis match between Trevor Svajda and Elias Ymer in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
We track Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Trevor Svajda … on Prediction Market UK
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