Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing and Shanghai are scheduled to meet in a CBA play-off game on 22 May, and this market settles on which side wins the final score after any overtime. In prediction markets, a “YES” share pays out if the named outcome happens, while a “NO” share pays out if it does not. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% YES, the market is effectively saying that Beijing are not expected to win this match at all.

Recent head-to-head results give some context for reading that price. The sides have traded wins in this series, with Shanghai taking Game 2 by 99-88 and Beijing responding in Game 3 by 87-82; earlier this month Shanghai also won 81-66. For a market like this, those comparable games matter more than season-long records because they show both teams can win on the day, and that margins have been wide enough to shift quickly when one side controls the pace.

Traders should watch for the confirmed line-up, any injury or rotation news before tip-off, and whether the league keeps the fixture on schedule, because postponement would leave the market open until the game is completed. Live score services such as SofaScore and Flashscore already list the matchup for 22 May, which suggests it is currently expected to go ahead, but the settlement rule also covers cancellation: if there is no make-up game, the market resolves 50-50.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.