Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
82% | 18% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
82% | 18% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 46.5 | 82% |
| O/U 54.5 | 81% |
| O/U 48.5 | 80% |
| O/U 42.5 | 77% |
| O/U 56.5 | 77% |
| O/U 50.5 | 75% |
| O/U 52.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 72% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 67% |
| Oregon vs. USC | 64% |
| Spread -0.5 | 63% |
| Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| 1H Moneyline | 59% |
| Oregon O/U 30.5 | 58% |
| O/U 44.5 | 57% |
| O/U 58.5 | 57% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 15.5 | 54% |
| USC O/U 27.5 | 53% |
| USC 1H O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 53% |
| O/U 60.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 17.5 | 52% |
| Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 34.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 37.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| O/U 78.5 | 50% |
| O/U 80.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| USC 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| USC 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Oregon O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Touchdowns O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| USC 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| USC 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| USC Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| USC Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| USC Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| USC Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Oregon Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| USC Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| USC Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| USC Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon vs. USC: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Spread -5.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 45% |
| O/U 62.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| O/U 64.5 | 42% |
| USC O/U 30.5 | 42% |
| Oregon O/U 27.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Spread -0.5 | 37% |
| O/U 66.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 37% |
| Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| Spread -8.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| O/U 70.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 37.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -11.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 26% |
| 2Q O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| Spread -20.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 21% |
| O/U 68.5 | 21% |
| O/U 76.5 | 19% |
| Spread -21.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| O/U 72.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| O/U 82.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
Market context
The Oregon vs. USC prediction market currently prices this outcome at 82% YES. In the upcoming college football game between Oregon and USC, scheduled for September 26 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Oregon" if Oregon win the game. This market will resolve to "USC" if…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $408K.
Methodology
We track Oregon vs. USC across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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