1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The match in question is a **club friendly** between 1. FC Köln and Real Sociedad, and this market settles on the final score, including any stoppage time or extra periods if they are played. For newcomers to prediction markets, a **YES share** pays out if the exact listed score happens, while a **NO share** pays out if it does not; with crowd-implied probability at **0% YES**, the market is currently saying that outcome is being treated as essentially unavailable rather than merely unlikely.[1][5]

Recent form gives some context for how to read that. Köln’s latest listed results include a 2-2 draw with Hamburg, an 8-0 win over Bergisch Gladbach and a 5-0 win over Rheine, but also heavier defeats in league play, while Real Sociedad’s recent run includes a 2-1 loss to Toulouse, wins over Aston Villa and Wolves, and draws with Racing Santander and Espanyol.[1][2][5] In friendly football, scorelines are often more volatile than in league fixtures because managers rotate heavily, test players and alter line-ups at half-time, so exact-score markets usually hinge more on the narrow set of plausible score combinations than on outright team strength.[9][15]

For traders, the key catalysts are the pre-match team news, the confirmed kick-off status and whether either side changes venue, format or match length, because the market rules say settlement follows the actual final score regardless of whether the game lasts 90 or 120 minutes.[1] Any late squad announcements matter more than usual in a friendly, as the available line-ups can shift the expected scoreline quickly; current fixture listings show the game scheduled for 8 August 2026, with live coverage pages already in place, which suggests the main risks are last-minute selection changes rather than a lack of event listing.[1][5][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.