Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AFC Ajax O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AFC Ajax O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AFC Ajax O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| AFC Ajax 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AFC Ajax 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AFC Ajax (-1.5) | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| AFC Ajax 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| AFC Ajax (-2.5) | 97% |
| O/U 3.5 | 67% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| Shelbourne FC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| AFC Ajax 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Shelbourne FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Shelbourne FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 4.5 | 29% |
| Both Teams to Score | 10% |
| Shelbourne FC O/U 0.5 | 10% |
| O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Shelbourne FC O/U 1.5 | 5% |
| Shelbourne FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Shelbourne FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Shelbourne FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Shelbourne FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, afc ajax vs. shelbourne fc - more markets stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. More markets for the UEFA Europa Conference League game, scheduled for August 6 at 2:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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