The Hundred: Southern Brave vs Welsh Fire

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hundred match between Southern Brave and Welsh Fire will be decided by the official result published after play, with a **YES** share paying out if Southern Brave win and a **NO** share paying out if they do not. In prediction-market terms, the current **0% YES** implies the market is treating a Southern Brave victory as effectively unavailable, so the main reference point is whether the match has already been completed, abandoned, or otherwise settled against that outcome.

Recent meetings give a useful baseline for how volatile this fixture can be. Southern Brave beat Welsh Fire by four runs in 2025 and by 42 runs in 2024, while a 2024 BBC scorecard also records a Welsh Fire v Southern Brave men’s match as a **no result**, showing that weather and match interruption can matter in The Hundred just as much as team strength.[1][2][3] For a newcomer, that means this market is not only about who is stronger on paper, but also about whether the game is actually completed in a form that produces a winner.

The main catalysts to watch are the match status, any official start-time changes, and whether the fixture reaches a completed result on ESPNcricinfo, since that is the settlement source named in the contract. If the game is washed out, abandoned, or otherwise ends without a winner, the result can differ from a normal win/loss outcome depending on the playing conditions, while any on-field ruling that awards a winner is treated as an ordinary win. Because this market settles on the final published result, late score updates and abandonment notices are the key dependency rather than pre-match odds.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.