PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

The FedEx St. Jude Championship is a PGA Tour event held annually in Memphis, Tennessee, typically in August. A YES share represents a bet that a specific named player will win the tournament outright; a NO share bets they will not. The 6% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that this particular player has roughly a one-in-seventeen chance of victory. If the named player is eliminated under official tournament rules before completion, the market resolves immediately to NO regardless of when the tournament ends. Should an unlisted competitor win, the market resolves to "Other" rather than NO, protecting traders who backed the named player against that scenario.

Historical context suggests that 6% odds align with mid-tier contenders in PGA events—players with legitimate tournament credentials but not among the favourites. The FedEx St. Jude Championship has produced winners across a range of rankings; recent editions have seen both established names and less-heralded competitors claim victory, making the field relatively open compared to major championships. Comparable PGA Tour events show that single-player probabilities at this level typically reflect players ranked between 20th and 50th in form or season-long standings.

Traders should monitor official PGA Tour injury reports and withdrawal announcements, which trigger immediate NO resolution if the named player is ruled out. Tournament scheduling confirmation and course conditions closer to August 2026 will influence market movement. Recent form data, published weekly through the PGA Tour's official statistics portal, provides the most reliable indicator of shifting probabilities as the event approaches.

Methodology

We track PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

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