Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru Match O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru Match O/U 22.5 | 75% |
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru Match O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru | 31% |
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru Set 2 Winner | 1% |
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 1% |
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of samsun: gabi boitan vs gabriel debru. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Gabi Boitan and Gabriel Debru in the Samsun, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gabi …
Methodology
We track Samsun: Gabi Boitan vs Gabriel Debru across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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