Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the tennis match between Petr Nesterov and Sebastian Sorger in the Plovdiv 2, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Petr Nesterov' i…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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