FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Platform comparison

Market context

FC St. Pauli host SpVgg Greuther Fürth in a 2. Bundesliga match at the Millerntor-Stadion, and a **YES** share in this market means the game is settled as having occurred by the market’s deadline; a **NO** share means it has not. The current 0% crowd-implied probability is best read as the market assigning no chance to the event failing to settle as scheduled, which is consistent with a listed fixture rather than a question about a team result.[2][6]

For context, St. Pauli and Fürth have a long head-to-head history: Bundesliga.com says Fürth have won 17 of 41 meetings, while St. Pauli have won 12, but St. Pauli are unbeaten in their last five against Fürth, including a 3–2 home win in 2023/24.[6] Kicker’s archive also shows 41 total competitive meetings between the sides, which makes past results useful mainly as a guide to the fixture’s regularity rather than a reliable predictor of any one outcome.[5][6]

The main catalysts to watch are simple match-dependency issues: kick-off timing, venue, and whether the fixture is altered by postponement, abandonment, or a schedule change. Current listings place the game at 11:30 UTC on 9 August 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion, and both SofaScore and Bundesliga.com have the match on their season schedule, which supports the market’s assumption that settlement should hinge on the fixture taking place as planned.[2][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

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