Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 100% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 0 - 0 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 0 - 1 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1 - 0 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 0 - 2 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1 - 1 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 2 - 0 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 0 - 3 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1 - 2 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 2 - 1 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 3 - 0 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1 - 3 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 2 - 2 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 3 - 1 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 2 - 3 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 3 - 2 CR Flamengo | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 3 - 3 CR Flamengo | 0% |
Market context
Chapecoense host Flamengo in a Brazil Série A match, and this exact-score market settles on the final result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. In a prediction market, a **YES** share pays if the named scoreline happens; a **NO** share pays if it does not, so a crowd-implied **0% YES** suggests the specific scoreline is being priced as effectively impossible rather than merely unlikely.
That reading is easier to understand when set against the teams’ recent history. In 16 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 11, Chapecoense 2, with 3 draws, and Flamengo have scored 33 goals to Chapecoense’s 13 across those games.[1][2] That kind of head-to-head imbalance matters in exact-score markets because the price is not about who wins in general, but whether the match lands on one listed score rather than any other outcome.
The main catalysts to watch are team news, the confirmed kick-off time, and whether the fixture is actually played as scheduled. Current listings place the match at Arena Condá in Chapecó on 23 July 2026 local time, and live odds have Flamengo as a strong favourite, which supports a wide range of away-win scores rather than one precise result.[4][5][6] If there is any postponement or rescheduling, the settlement rules become decisive because the market stays open only if the match is not completed in the stated window.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo - … on Prediction Market UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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