Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Coritiba FBC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| Coritiba FBC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Coritiba FBC (-1.5) | 1% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Coritiba FBC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Coritiba FBC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5) | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Coritiba’s meeting with Chapecoense is the underlying football match, and a YES share on a “more markets” contract usually pays out if the exchange later lists additional sub-markets for that game before the settlement window closes; a NO share pays if it does not. With the crowd-implied probability at just 1%, the market is signalling that extra market creation is currently seen as very unlikely, so even a small procedural change would matter a lot for pricing.
Recent head-to-head data gives a useful frame for reading that low number. The clubs have been closely matched over time: FootyStats records 5 Coritiba wins, 5 Chapecoense wins and 3 draws across 13 meetings, with an average of 2.52 goals per game[1]. Soccerway’s recent sequence also shows a tight rivalry, including a 3-3 draw in February 2026 and results of 0-0, 2-1 and 1-0 in the last few encounters[12][15][16]. For prediction-market readers, that kind of evenly balanced fixture often supports active trading on match-specific sub-markets such as goals, cards or corners, but it does not by itself force a platform to list them.
What to watch is the market-maker’s publication timing rather than the teams’ tactics. New “more markets” listings typically depend on the operator posting the game page, setting the available contracts, and confirming them before the settlement deadline; any late update to the fixture page can change whether the contract resolves YES or NO. Team news, venue confirmation and match timing are the key dependencies, but the relevant trigger here is the platform’s own catalogue of markets rather than the scoreline itself[2][14].
Methodology
This page reviews Coritiba FBC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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