The Hundred: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hundred match between London Spirit and Manchester Super Giants is scheduled for 23 July at Lord’s, with the men’s fixture listed for 6.30pm local time, and the market settles on the final result recorded by ESPNcricinfo. In plain terms, a **YES** share pays out if London Spirit win this match; a **NO** share pays out if Manchester Super Giants do, with the usual cricket rules applying if the game is decided by a Super Over or another on-field ruling.

A 0% crowd-implied probability usually means the market is treating YES as effectively dead, not that the result is mathematically impossible. In cricket prediction markets, prices can swing sharply if a fixture has already started, if a scorecard update has been missed, or if one side has been officially confirmed as the winner after a revised result. Recent comparable Hundred meetings have gone both ways: Manchester Super Giants beat London Spirit by seven runs in a men’s clash at Lord’s last season, while the women’s sides also produced a Super Giants win this week at the same venue, which gives traders a practical reminder that match-up history in this competition can be mixed rather than one-sided.[2][6][1]

The key catalysts to watch are the toss, confirmed XIs, any late injury news, and whether the match is completed in full or shortened by weather, because those factors can affect both the betting view and the official result. ESPNcricinfo is the settlement source here, so a trader should track live score updates there and on official team channels, especially if the game is interrupted or finished by a tiebreak. The fixture is listed as part of a double-header day, which also means attention can shift to operational updates around the venue and start time.[3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track The Hundred: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.