The Hundred, Women: London Spirit vs MI London

Platform comparison

Market context

The match is the women’s Hundred fixture between London Spirit and MI London, and in a prediction market a **YES** share pays out if the event happens as specified, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not. Here, the contract is tied to the scheduled 6 August 2026 meeting, and the market also treats ordinary cricket outcomes such as DLS/DRS adjustments, over-rate penalties and walkovers as valid wins for resolution, which means traders are really pricing whether the fixture is ultimately completed and an official result is recorded.

A crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** points to an extreme view that the contract is effectively dead, usually because the market has already resolved or because participants see no remaining path to settlement in the YES direction. That reading fits the recent head-to-head context: these sides have already played a tied women’s Hundred match this season, finishing 151-5 apiece with points shared, which shows this pairing can be tightly matched even when a winner is not produced on the field.[1][10] Earlier reporting also described London Spirit as the stronger side in recent meetings, including wins in the last three completed clashes before that tie.[8]

For traders, the main catalysts are simple but important: whether the fixture starts and finishes on time, whether any abandonment triggers a competition decision, and whether the playing conditions permit a tiebreak if scores are level. Recent previews for this matchup placed it at Lord’s and noted contrasting seasons, with London Spirit higher in the table and MI London still searching for wins, while one report said Spirit had one victory, three defeats and a tie, against MI London’s winless record and last-place position.[2][8][11] Because the market settles on the official match outcome rather than margin or scoreline, late changes to the schedule or a no-result ruling matter far more than pre-match form.[2][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.