Metro Bank One Day Cup: Gloucestershire vs Surrey

Platform comparison

Market context

Gloucestershire and Surrey are playing a Metro Bank One Day Cup one-day cricket match in Bristol, and the market will resolve from the official final result on ESPNcricinfo. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the match produces an official winner or other recognised result; a **NO** share pays out if there is no official result, such as an abandonment or cancellation. [1][12]

A current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** suggests the market is pricing in a very low chance that this specific fixture will finish with the listed outcome, so even a small change in the match status would be material. Recent comparable meetings point to both sides being capable of producing decisive results: Surrey beat Gloucestershire by 19 runs in a Bristol day-night match earlier in the competition, while Gloucestershire beat Surrey by 85 runs in last year’s One Day Cup at Guildford. [1][3]

For traders, the main catalysts are the fixture going ahead as scheduled, any weather interruption, and whether the game reaches an official completion under competition playing conditions. The county preview said the match was due to start at 2pm at Seat Unique Stadium, Bristol, while ESPNcricinfo’s match report for the earlier meeting shows the competition is usually decided in standard one-day fashion rather than by a special process, with DLS, over-rate rulings, forfeits or a Super Over all counting as ordinary results for settlement. [2][1][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.