ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand

Platform comparison

Market context

A cricket match between West Indies and New Zealand, scheduled for 19 July 2026 at Kensington Oval in Barbados, has already concluded, with New Zealand winning by five wickets. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the named outcome occurs (here, West Indies winning), while a NO share pays out if it does not; since the result is known, the market’s 0% YES probability correctly reflects that West Indies did not win [1].

Historically, once a match result is finalised and published by official sources like ESPNcricinfo, prediction markets settle immediately at 0% or 100%, leaving no room for price movement. Comparable cases from recent ODI series show that markets on completed matches resolve within hours of the official scorecard, with probabilities locking to the actual outcome and no further trading activity [1]. This eliminates uncertainty and ensures settlement aligns precisely with the published result.

Traders should monitor only the official ESPNcricinfo match result page for confirmation, as the market explicitly resolves based on that source [1]. No further catalysts—such as team announcements, weather updates, or schedule changes—apply, since the game has already been played and the winner determined. The settlement window ending on 26 July 2026 serves only as a formal deadline for administrative closure, not as a period of active uncertainty [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.