Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-3.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo W7M (-3.5) vs DENDELE CS (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo W7M (-6.5) vs DENDELE CS (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-6.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-3.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+3.5) | 91% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 91% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-9.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-6.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-12.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+12.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: DENDELE CS (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-3.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-6.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: FXW7 (-1.5) vs DENDELE CS (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-9.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-12.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+12.5) | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: South American Closed Qualifier Playoffs. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Semifinal 2 match between Fluxo W7M and DENDELE CS in the PGL Masters Bucharest: South American Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled fo…
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: South American Closed Qualifier Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - PGL … on Prediction Market UK
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