Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs NEW VISION (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-6.5) vs NEW VISION (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-9.5) vs NEW VISION (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-12.5) vs NEW VISION (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: SPARTA (-9.5) vs NEW VISION (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
SPARTA and NEW VISION are scheduled to meet in a best-of-three group-stage match at CCT Europe Series #6, with this market paying out on the team that wins the series. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share resolves if the named outcome happens and a **NO** share resolves if it does not; here, that means SPARTA are the YES side only if they beat NEW VISION, while any cancelled, tied, or excessively delayed match would push the market to 50-50 under the stated rules. The event sits inside a 16-team Swiss group stage where every match is Bo3, so there is no single-map variance to ignore: the series winner is the only result that matters for settlement.[1][13]
The current 100% YES price suggests the market is treating SPARTA as a certainty, but that kind of reading should be checked against how efficiently esports markets can move on schedule updates, late roster changes, or if the match has already been completed elsewhere. Public match listings show the contest as a Round 2 Bo3 on 30 July, and one score page already records SPARTA winning 2-0, which would explain an extreme price if the market is still open despite the result being known.[2][3][4] Liquipedia and tournament schedulers also place CCT Europe Series #6 in a compact 27 July to 8 August online run, so settlement risk is less about travel and more about whether the listed fixture was actually played, finished, and recorded cleanly before the deadline.[1][10][13]
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Group Stage across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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