Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Randers FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Randers FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Randers FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Randers FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Randers FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| Lyngby BK (-1.5) | 0% |
| Randers FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Lyngby BK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Randers FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Lyngby BK O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Lyngby BK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Lyngby BK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Randers FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Lyngby BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Lyngby BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Randers FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Lyngby BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Lyngby BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Randers FC and Lyngby BK are due to play a Denmark Superliga match on 9 August, and this market asks whether *additional markets* will be listed for that fixture before the settlement window closes. In prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if the stated condition happens, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not; with the crowd currently pricing this at **100% YES**, traders are effectively saying they expect more betting lines to appear.
That 100% reading is best treated as an indicator of strong confidence, not certainty. Comparable preview markets for this fixture point to a game with several plausible side markets, including goals-related outcomes such as **both teams to score** and **over 2.5 goals**, alongside a reasonably balanced result market rather than a one-sided mismatch.[1][2][3] Independent prediction sites also lean towards Randers or a draw with goals likely, which helps explain why traders may expect bookmakers or venue-facing operators to post extra derivatives such as score, goals, or team-specific markets.[2][3][7][11]
What to watch is not the match itself but the information flow around it: official line-ups, injury updates, late suspensions, and any change to kickoff timing or broadcast/scheduling arrangements can all affect which “more markets” appear and when they are settled. Live odds pages for the fixture already show a broad menu of possible markets, including result, goals, handicap, and both-teams-to-score lines, so the main dependency is whether the operator chooses to publish additional selections before the settlement cut-off.[6][14]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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