Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| ADO Den Haag O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| ADO Den Haag 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 94% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| O/U 1.5 | 93% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 76% |
| O/U 2.5 | 72% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 61% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| ADO Den Haag 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| ADO Den Haag 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| ADO Den Haag O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam (-1.5) | 27% |
| O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam (-2.5) | 11% |
| O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| ADO Den Haag (-1.5) | 5% |
| ADO Den Haag O/U 2.5 | 4% |
| ADO Den Haag (-2.5) | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| ADO Den Haag 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. ADO Den Haag - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. More markets for the Eredivisie game, scheduled for August 30 at 8:30 AM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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