Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 74% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 1.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam (-1.5) | 46% |
| Sparta Rotterdam O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score | 36% |
| Sparta Rotterdam O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| Sparta Rotterdam O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam (-2.5) | 9% |
| O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Sparta Rotterdam (-1.5) | 1% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Sparta Rotterdam (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Sparta Rotterdam meet Feyenoord Rotterdam in an Eredivisie derby, and a **YES** share in this market pays out if the listed “more markets” condition is met before the settlement window closes at 2026-08-09T10:15:00Z; a **NO** share pays out if it is not. The crowd-implied **1% YES** price signals that traders currently see the condition as very unlikely, which is consistent with how narrow, add-on market outcomes tend to be priced when the underlying fixture is already expected to be routine rather than unusual.[9][1]
Historical head-to-head data gives a useful frame for reading that number. Feyenoord have dominated the derby over time, winning 20 of the 28 meetings recorded since 2005 in one dataset, with Sparta winning four and four drawn.[1] Other databases show a similar pattern, with Feyenoord ahead on wins and scoring far more often, although Sparta have occasionally taken points, including a 3-4 away win in January 2026 and a 1-1 draw in August 2024.[2][10] For a prediction market newcomer, that means the base sporting relationship between the teams is lopsided, but the market itself is not a simple match-winner bet; it hinges on whether the specific “more markets” condition is triggered, which is why the implied probability can sit near zero even before kick-off.
Traders should watch the final team news, any late schedule change, and the exact wording of the settlement rule, because small interpretation differences matter more here than in a standard result market. Sky Sports lists the fixture for 11:15am local time on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Sparta-Stadion, and BBC live coverage pages show both clubs were scheduled for the fixture with no points attached before kick-off.[9][4] If the market depends on extra outcomes being posted or confirmed after the match, then line-ups, officiating decisions, and any official competition announcements around postponement or abandonment are the main dependencies to monitor.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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