Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mantova 1911 (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Mantova 1911 O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Mantova 1911 O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Mantova 1911 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 90% |
| Mantova 1911 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 90% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 10% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| SS Lazio 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 10% |
| SS Lazio 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| SS Lazio (-1.5) | 0% |
| SS Lazio (-2.5) | 0% |
| Mantova 1911 (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SS Lazio O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SS Lazio O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SS Lazio O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mantova 1911 O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SS Lazio 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SS Lazio 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Mantova 1911 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mantova 1911 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Coppa Italia fixtures in August typically involve lower-division or regional clubs competing in early qualifying rounds. SS Lazio, the Serie A side based in Rome, will face Mantova 1911, a club from Lombardy currently competing in Serie C, on 16 August at 3:15 PM ET. This market references "more markets" — meaning additional betting propositions beyond standard match outcomes — though the specific wording of what constitutes a YES settlement remains undefined at present. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if an event occurs; a NO share pays if it does not. Here, the 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assign negligible likelihood to whatever condition the market eventually specifies.
Historical Coppa Italia early rounds show high variance in outcomes. Whilst top-flight clubs typically advance, upsets occur when squad rotation is heavy or preparation is minimal. Mantova's recent promotion to the professional pyramid (returning to Serie C in 2022 after years in lower tiers) means limited recent head-to-head data exists. Lazio's typical approach to cup competitions involves fielding mixed lineups, particularly in August when pre-season scheduling conflicts arise.
Key variables include Lazio's squad availability following summer transfers and any injury updates released before 16 August. The Coppa Italia fixture list, published by the Italian Football Federation, will confirm exact kick-off times and any scheduling changes. Mantova's recent form in Serie C and any managerial changes heading into the fixture will influence market reassessment. The settlement window closes at 19:15 UTC on match day, allowing only post-match confirmation to trigger payouts.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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