Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tigres de la UANL (-1.5) | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL (-2.5) | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Minnesota United FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Tigres de la UANL played Minnesota United in a Leagues Cup match at Allianz Field, with the game finishing 0-0 after 90 minutes and Tigres then winning 4-2 on penalties.[1][4][5] In a prediction market, a **YES** share pays out if the specified event happens by the settlement deadline, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not; here, the low crowd-implied **0% YES** suggests traders expect the “more markets” condition to remain unmet before the window closes.[1][5]
To read that price, it helps to compare it with the match context rather than the result alone. Tigres arrived with a stronger recent record in the Leagues Cup than Minnesota, while Minnesota had already lost to FC Juárez in the group phase and Tigres had taken a penalty shootout win over Real Salt Lake before facing Minnesota.[1][3][12] There is no established head-to-head history between the clubs in the competition, so traders are usually looking at the structure of the event — whether additional official markets are listed or settled — rather than at team rivalry data.[2][3]
The main catalysts are procedural rather than sporting: any announcement of extra official market listings, settlement rules updates, or schedule changes affecting the Leagues Cup match window could alter whether the condition can still be satisfied before 2026-08-08T01:00:00Z.[1][5][11] Because the fixture was scheduled for 7 August at 9:00 PM ET and later reached penalties, the important watchpoint is whether the market’s wording covers only pre-match offerings, in-play additions, or any further derivative markets created before settlement.[1][5]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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