Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels played a Major League Baseball game in Anaheim, where the Angels won 3–2 after snapping a four-game losing streak [1][3]. This market asks whether the Tigers will win that specific contest; a YES share pays out only if the Tigers are the victor, while a NO share pays out if they do not. With the game already completed and the Angels confirmed as winners, the crowd-implied probability for a Tigers win sits at 0% YES, reflecting the settled outcome rather than a forecast [1][2].

In prediction markets, historical cases show that probabilities collapse to 0% or 100% once an event’s result is officially recorded, as no further uncertainty remains. Here, the 0% figure aligns with the final score reported by ESPN and the Associated Press, which confirmed Ryan Johnson’s five-strikeout performance and RBI hits from Jorge Soler and Zach Neto secured the Angels’ victory [1][3]. Traders should watch for any official MLB announcements regarding game postponements or cancellations, though none apply here since the match concluded on schedule [1]. The settlement window closes on 26 July 2026, but resolution is effectively immediate given the confirmed result [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.