New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Market context

On 9 June at 6:40 PM ET, the New York Yankees will face the Cleveland Guardians in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture. A prediction market on this matchup allows traders to buy YES shares (backing a Yankees victory) or NO shares (backing a Guardians win). Each share settles at £1 if the outcome occurs, or £0 if it does not. The current crowd-implied probability of 45% for YES reflects moderate confidence in a Yankees win, with the remaining probability distributed to Cleveland. The settlement window extends to 16 June at 10:40 PM ET, allowing time for any postponements to be resolved before final settlement.

The Yankees hold a historical edge in head-to-head matchups against Cleveland, though the Guardians have strengthened considerably since their 2016 World Series run. Recent seasons show the teams split regular-season contests fairly evenly, with home-field advantage typically worth 3–5 percentage points in win probability. The Yankees' 45% implied probability suggests the market views this as a competitive fixture without a decisive favourite, consistent with how evenly matched division rivals typically trade.

Traders should monitor roster announcements through early June, particularly injury updates affecting either team's starting pitcher or key offensive contributors. Weather conditions at the venue and any late schedule changes could also shift probabilities. Recent form matters: teams entering June with winning records or momentum from their preceding series often see modest probability adjustments in their favour. The Guardians' pitching depth and the Yankees' offensive firepower are the primary variables determining outcome likelihood.

Methodology

We track New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.