Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is an MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees, scheduled for 7:05 PM ET on 20 July, where the Pirates win outright if they score more runs than the Yankees. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the Pirates win, while a NO share pays out if they do not; the current 9% crowd-implied probability for YES suggests the market heavily favours the Yankees.

Historically, underdogs in MLB with moneyline odds near +100 win roughly 45–48% of games, yet the 9% figure here is far lower than that baseline, indicating the market sees a significant mismatch. Comparable cases from the 2025 season show that when a team with a 55–44 record (like the Yankees, who hold that mark) faces a 52–48 opponent (the Pirates), the stronger team wins about 54% of matchups, per ESPN Analytics[5]. The current 9% implies the market believes the Yankees’ advantage is far greater than typical historical splits.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements and any late-injury updates, as MLB lineups can shift dramatically before game time. DraftKings lists the Pirates at -103 and Yankees at -117 on the moneyline, with a total of 7.5 runs, suggesting expectations of a low-scoring contest where one mistake could decide the outcome[7]. The settlement window remains open until 27 July 2026 if the game is postponed, so any delay extends the trading period and may alter probability as new information emerges.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.