Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Market context

The Pittsburgh Pirates are due to play the New York Yankees in a regular-season MLB game, and this market pays out on the team that wins the completed game. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share means the Pirates win; a **NO** share means the Yankees win. If the game is cancelled with no make-up, or ends tied, the market settles 50-50 rather than to either side.

A 37% crowd-implied chance on the Pirates is below a simple even split, which fits the usual pattern when one club is priced as the underdog and the public leans towards the stronger historical side. The Yankees have dominated this head-to-head over time, winning 26 of 40 meetings overall and 19 of 29 regular-season games, and they also won the most recent game between the sides on 20 July 2026, 8-5 at home.[1] ESPN’s live game page also showed the Yankees as the pre-game favourite for this matchup, with implied win probabilities of 55.7% for New York and 44.3% for Pittsburgh.[2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the official line-ups, any late pitching changes, and whether the game starts on time or is delayed. Because the market stays open until the game is actually completed, postponement matters less than final cancellation or an unplayed make-up schedule, which would change settlement to 50-50 under the rules given here. The immediate price will usually move most on confirmed starters, especially if either team scratches its projected pitcher or rests key batters after travel or a double-header.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.