San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners

Platform comparison

Market context

The San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners played their July 19 MLB game in Seattle, with the Mariners winning 6–3 on Sunday, a result already confirmed by official statistics [4]. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the chosen outcome occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the market asks whether the Giants won, and since the Mariners secured the victory, the YES outcome is impossible. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES correctly reflects this settled fact, as the game is no longer pending and the resolution source—the official final statistics—has already recorded the Mariners’ win [4].

Historically, markets for completed games with a definitive winner resolve immediately once the official result is published, and probabilities collapse to 0% or 100% depending on the outcome. Comparable cases include past MLB matchups where a team’s win was confirmed before settlement, leading to instant resolution with no further trading activity [5]. In this instance, the 0% YES probability aligns with the established result: the Giants did not win, so the market resolves to “Seattle Mariners” with certainty, and no postponement or cancellation applies since the game was fully completed [4].

Traders should watch for any official corrections to the final score, though such changes are rare once MLB releases the final statistics [4]. The settlement window ends on 26 July 2026, but since the game concluded on 19 July with a clear winner, no further catalysts—such as lineup announcements or weather updates—will affect resolution [1]. The market’s dependency is solely on the official record, which already confirms the Mariners’ 6–3 victory, making any further price movement irrelevant [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.