Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies

Platform comparison

Market context

An MLB game took place on 20 July 2026 between the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, with the Nationals winning 7–3. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the selected outcome occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the YES outcome is a Nationals win. Because the game has already finished and the Nationals secured the victory, the market’s 100% YES probability reflects a settled result rather than a live forecast.

Historically, prediction markets for completed sports events that have a clear winner resolve to 100% on the winning side once official results are confirmed. In this case, the final score of 7–3, confirmed by CBS Sports and ESPN, removes all uncertainty, making the 100% YES price consistent with past cases where post-game markets lock in immediately after the official result is published [14][15].

Traders should monitor the official final statistics page for the event, as the market resolves based on those recognised figures. With the game already completed and the result confirmed, no further announcements, schedule changes, or pitching updates will affect settlement. The primary dependency is the official record, which already shows the Nationals as winners, so the market will close at 100% YES without further catalysts [14].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.