Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June at 21:45 ET, the Washington Nationals will face the San Francisco Giants in an MLB regular-season fixture. A YES share in this market pays out if the Nationals win; a NO share pays out if the Giants win. The current crowd-implied probability of 51% YES reflects near-parity between the two teams, suggesting traders see marginal advantage to Washington but expect a competitive contest.

The Nationals finished the 2023 season with a 71–91 record, whilst the Giants posted 80–82. Both clubs occupy the lower-to-middle tier of their respective divisions, making historical head-to-head records a more useful reference than divisional standing. Since 2020, the Nationals hold a slight edge in matchups against San Francisco, though neither team has demonstrated sustained dominance in the pairing. The 51% probability aligns with this competitive balance—neither franchise enters as a clear favourite based on recent form or roster composition.

Key variables for traders include starting pitcher assignments and injury status updates in the days before the fixture. San Francisco's pitching depth has been a point of concern through the 2024 season, whilst Washington's rotation has shown inconsistency. Weather conditions at the scheduled venue and any late roster moves—trades or call-ups—announced closer to game time could shift the probability meaningfully. The settlement window extends to 17 June, allowing resolution even if the match is postponed, though cancellation without a make-up game would trigger a 50–50 split.

Methodology

We track Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.