Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Columbus Crew O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| New York City FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| New York City FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| New York City FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Columbus Crew 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| New York City FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Columbus Crew (-1.5) | 0% |
| New York City FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Columbus Crew (-2.5) | 0% |
| New York City FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Columbus Crew O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Columbus Crew O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Columbus Crew 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Columbus Crew 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Columbus Crew 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Columbus Crew and New York City FC are due to meet in MLS action, and in a prediction market a **YES** share pays if the listed event happens before the settlement deadline, while a **NO** share pays if it does not. In a “More Markets” contract, that usually means traders are pricing some secondary match outcome rather than the main winner, so the exact wording of the market matters because the payoff depends on that specific condition being met.
A **0% YES** price usually means the market sees the condition as already impossible, mis-specified, or effectively irrelevant at the point of pricing. That should be read against the match context, not as a general view of team strength. Recent Columbus–NYCFC meetings have been fairly balanced over the long run: FootyStats records 28 head-to-head matches with Columbus winning 11, NYCFC nine, and eight draws, while another summary shows 25 meetings with Columbus 10 wins, NYCFC seven, and eight draws.[4][5] NYCFC also lost 1-0 to Columbus in a recent cup tie, with Max Arfsten scoring the only goal.[2]
For traders, the main catalysts are the line-up announcements, any late injury or rotation news, and whether the market’s wording depends on a specific stat threshold, both teams scoring, or another in-match event. Those details can move sharply once teams are named, especially if a favourite rests starters or a goalkeeper change affects goal expectations. Live match context also matters: Flashscore’s match page for this fixture flagged an under-4.5-goals projection, which is useful background but not a substitute for the contract wording itself.[1]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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