FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes

Platform comparison

Market context

FC Cincinnati host San Jose Earthquakes in an MLS regular-season match at TQL Stadium, with the market settling on whether the listed event completes as specified by the deadline. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the match is played and resolves to the market’s stated condition; a **NO** share pays if it does not, so the price is the crowd’s implied probability, not a guarantee of the football result. [5][15]

A 100% YES price usually means traders see the event itself as effectively locked in, rather than expressing a view on who wins. That fits this fixture, which multiple schedules and previews list for Saturday 1 August 2026 in Cincinnati, with one recent MLS preview noting that FC Cincinnati had won the previous two meetings, including a 6-0 home win, while other previews pointed to goals and a relatively open game rather than a straightforward away upset. [5][6][9]

The main catalysts to watch are team news, late injury or suspension updates, and any schedule change, because those can affect whether the match is played on time and how confidently traders can treat the listing. FC Cincinnati’s own preview framed the game as a chance to bounce back after a rivalry defeat, while recent coverage also pointed to San Jose arriving off a mixed run, making pre-match line-up announcements and any official league postponement notice the key dependencies for settlement. [5][2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track FC Cincinnati vs. San Jose Earthquakes across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.