CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution

Platform comparison

Market context

CF Montréal host the New England Revolution in an MLS regular-season match, and in a prediction market a **YES** share pays out if the event happens as defined here, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not. With the crowd-implied probability at **0% YES**, the market is effectively saying traders are assigning no chance to the specified settlement condition being met, although that can reflect stale pricing, thin liquidity, or uncertainty around the exact settlement wording rather than the football itself.

Recent and comparable meetings give a straightforward frame for reading that price. New England beat Montréal 3-0 in their April 2026 league meeting, and the teams have produced a lopsided recent series, including a 3-1 Montréal win in July 2025 and a 3-0 New England win in May 2025, with ESPN and FBref both showing several decisive results rather than a long run of draws.[3][8][9] Head-to-head data from FotMob and Sportradar also show New England holding the edge overall in the matchup record, which helps explain why any pre-match probability can move sharply on team news, but a zero price is still unusual for a scheduled MLS game.[5][6]

The main catalysts to watch are team selection, late injury or suspension updates, and whether either side rotates because of a congested schedule or competition priorities. AP noted before the fixture that this was the second meeting of the season and highlighted attacking contributors such as Prince-Osei Owusu, Carles Gil and Dor Turgeman, all of whom can affect both scoring expectations and match outcome pricing.[13] For traders, the practical check is whether confirmed line-ups, goalkeeper changes or last-minute absences alter the balance before the settlement window closes at 2026-08-01T23:30:00Z; if the market remains at 0% YES after line-ups are posted, that points more to a definitional or data issue than to an ordinary football probability.[13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.