San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC

Platform comparison

Market context

San Jose Earthquakes played Orlando City SC in an MLS match at PayPal Park, with the settlement window tied to the final result after kick-off on Wednesday, 22 July 2026.[3][4] In a prediction market like this, a **YES** share pays out if the stated outcome happens, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not; the current crowd-implied probability of 10% suggests traders think the YES condition is relatively unlikely.

Historical meetings give some context for that price. The sides have tended to be competitive rather than one-sided: one head-to-head summary shows San Jose with one win, Orlando with three, and three draws across the previous seven meetings.[8] Recent match recaps also show both clubs have produced varied results against each other, including a 1-1 draw and a 3-0 San Jose win in earlier seasons.[2][5] That mix matters because a low implied probability is often a shorthand for the market expecting the listed event to be narrow, uncertain, or dependent on late breaks rather than a routine outcome.

Traders should watch team news, especially goalkeeper and striker availability, late travel updates, and whether either side rotates because of fixture congestion or injury management. MLS line-up announcements and official club previews are usually the key near-term catalysts, and the betting market has already priced San Jose as the stronger side in the match itself, which can help explain why a separate yes/no market may sit at a much lower number.[9] The ESPN listing confirms the fixture and timing, while FOX Sports also has the game line and total goals market, both of which can move quickly if line-ups or availability change before kick-off.[1][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.