San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

San Jose Earthquakes and Orlando City SC are due to meet in MLS on 22 July at 10:30 pm ET, and this “More Markets” contract settles on whether additional listed outcomes occur in that game. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the specified market condition is met before the settlement window closes; a **NO** share pays out if it is not, so the price is the crowd’s best estimate of that outcome. The current **3% YES** implies traders think the contract is very unlikely to resolve in the affirmative.

For context, recent San Jose–Orlando meetings have often been tight rather than goal-heavy or one-sided. MLS match reports show a 1-1 draw, a 1-0 Orlando win, a 3-0 San Jose win, and a 5-0 Orlando win across earlier clashes, which is a reminder that head-to-head history can swing quickly rather than follow a single pattern.[2][3][4][5] For a new reader, that sort of mixed record is useful because a low probability here may reflect the market expecting a narrow set of “more markets” conditions rather than simply backing either side to win.[2][3][4][5]

The main catalysts to watch are team news, line-ups, and any late changes to match conditions, because those are the details that can alter the chance of additional market outcomes being triggered. ESPN’s match listing confirms the fixture and timing, while MLS and club recap pages show how much can depend on the specific flow of the game, including late goals and whether one side controls the tempo.[1][2][4][5] If the market depends on totals, player props, or other add-on outcomes, then confirmed starting XIs and any pre-match injury or rotation news will matter most.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.