Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 21.5 | 93% |
| O/U 23.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 25.5 | 91% |
| O/U 26.5 | 88% |
| O/U 27.5 | 87% |
| O/U 28.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| O/U 29.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 82% |
| Browns O/U 10.5 | 80% |
| O/U 30.5 | 79% |
| Jaguars O/U 18.5 | 78% |
| O/U 31.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| Browns 1H O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Spread -2.5 | 75% |
| O/U 32.5 | 75% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 33.5 | 70% |
| Spread -3.5 | 68% |
| O/U 34.5 | 68% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 68% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| O/U 35.5 | 65% |
| Jaguars O/U 21.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| Jaguars O/U 15.5 | 65% |
| Spread -5.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| O/U 36.5 | 62% |
| Spread -6.5 | 61% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| 2H Moneyline | 59% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| O/U 37.5 | 58% |
| O/U 38.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Spread -7.5 | 53% |
| O/U 39.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 21+ | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Browns 1H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Browns Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Browns O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Browns O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Browns 1H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Browns 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Browns Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Browns vs. Jaguars: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Browns O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Browns 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Browns 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 49% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| Spread -9.5 | 48% |
| Jaguars O/U 24.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 18.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| O/U 41.5 | 45% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 43% |
| O/U 42.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 42% |
| Browns O/U 25.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| O/U 43.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 44.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| O/U 45.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| Spread -16.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 30% |
| O/U 46.5 | 30% |
| O/U 47.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 27% |
| Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| O/U 48.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| O/U 49.5 | 22% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 22% |
| Browns vs. Jaguars | 21% |
| Spread -20.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| Spread -1.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| O/U 50.5 | 19% |
| Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| O/U 51.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-13 | 16% |
| Spread -21.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| O/U 52.5 | 16% |
| Browns O/U 20.5 | 16% |
| Browns 1H O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 15% |
| O/U 53.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 14-20 | 14% |
| Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 54.5 | 13% |
| Browns 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| O/U 55.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| O/U 56.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| O/U 58.5 | 9% |
| O/U 57.5 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 1-6 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 60.5 | 7% |
| Browns 1H O/U 16.5 | 7% |
| O/U 59.5 | 6% |
| O/U 61.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Browns O/U 28.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 25+ | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 7-12 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -8.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| O/U 62.5 | 4% |
| O/U 64.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 13-18 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Browns by 19-24 | 2% |
| Spread -14.5 | 2% |
| Spread -17.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 95% probability to browns vs. jaguars. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00PM ET: If Browns wins, the market will resolve to "Browns". If Jaguars wins, the market will resolve to "Jaguars". If the game is postponed,…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $165K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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