Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Club Alianza Lima O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Alianza Lima O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CS Huancayo O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Alianza Lima 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CS Huancayo 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Alianza Lima 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Alianza Lima (-1.5) | 0% |
| CS Huancayo (-1.5) | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima (-2.5) | 0% |
| CS Huancayo (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CS Huancayo O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CS Huancayo O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CS Huancayo 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CS Huancayo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CS Huancayo 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Club Alianza Lima and CS Huancayo are set to face off in a Peru Liga 1 match scheduled for 19 July at 8:00 PM ET, with this prediction market offering shares on additional outcomes beyond the standard result. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the specified event occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying strong confidence that the extra market condition will not be met.
Historically, matches between these two sides have been competitive but rarely produce extreme secondary outcomes that would trigger such niche markets. In their most recent encounter on 30 January 2026, Alianza Lima won 2–1, a result that aligns with typical scoring patterns and suggests limited volatility in ancillary bets like total corners or specific player actions [2][3]. Comparable fixtures in the Peru Liga 1 often settle within predictable ranges, reinforcing why traders might view a 0% YES probability as rational when the market hinges on rare events.
Traders should monitor pre-match announcements for lineup changes, weather conditions, or referee assignments, as these can shift secondary market dynamics. While no immediate news alerts have been issued for this fixture, recent head-to-head data shows Alianza Lima holding a slight edge in expected goals, which may influence corner or shot-based markets [4]. Any late squad updates or tactical shifts announced before kick-off could act as catalysts, so checking official club channels and league bulletins remains essential for informed positioning.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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