Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CD Garcilaso O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Garcilaso O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Cajamarca O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Garcilaso 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Garcilaso 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cajamarca 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Garcilaso (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca (-1.5) | 0% |
| CD Garcilaso (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CD Garcilaso O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CD Garcilaso 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CD Garcilaso 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Deportivo Garcilaso and FC Cajamarca meet in a Peru Liga 1 fixture scheduled for 26 July at 8:00 PM ET, and this market asks whether there will be *additional markets* available on that match within the settlement window. In prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if the stated event happens before the deadline; a **NO** share pays out if it does not, so the 0% crowd-implied probability means traders currently think extra related markets are extremely unlikely to appear in time.
The recent head-to-head result is a useful comparator: the sides drew 1-1 on 9 February 2026 at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, which shows the fixture has been competitive rather than one-sided.[1][2] For a “more markets” contract, that football context matters less than the platform’s own listing behaviour, because settlement depends on whether the operator creates further derivative markets on this game, not on who wins or how many goals are scored. A low price usually reflects either a lack of historical precedent for extra listings or the fact that the relevant market set has already been posted.
A trader should watch for three things: whether the match is confirmed to go ahead on schedule, whether the exchange or bookmaker adds new props before kick-off or shortly after, and whether the settlement rules define “more markets” by publication time, match start, or final whistle. Official fixture updates, team news, and any platform announcement on additional betting lines are the main catalysts, because a late schedule change or postponement can affect whether a new market ever opens.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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