Falkirk FC vs. St Mirren FC

Platform comparison

Market context

Falkirk and St Mirren are due to meet in Scottish Premiership action, and in prediction-market terms a **YES** share pays out if the event happens as defined before the settlement window closes, while a **NO** share pays if it does not. With the current crowd-implied probability at 0%, the market is signalling that traders see the listed conditions as either already failed, highly unlikely, or not yet fully reflected in the available information.

Historical context gives the market something to anchor to, but not a certainty. Falkirk have generally had the better of the longer head-to-head record, with several sources showing more Falkirk wins than St Mirren wins across the fixture’s history, while recent meetings have been split: St Mirren won 2-1 at Falkirk in September 2025, but Falkirk beat St Mirren 2-0 away in January 2026.[3][4][10] BBC reporting also noted that Falkirk had won four of their previous six league matches, while St Mirren had struggled for league wins and had only won twice in their last 14 league games at that point.[6][14]

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed team sheet, late injury news, and any scheduling or competition-specific clarification that could affect whether this match goes ahead within the market window. Live match pages from ESPN and other football data services show the fixture as scheduled for 1 August 2026, so the practical question is whether kickoff occurs and the competition status remains unchanged before 14:00 UTC settlement time.[1][13] In markets like this, a last-minute postponement, venue change, or official competition update matters more than historical form, because the payout depends on the precise event definition rather than who is favoured on the pitch.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Falkirk FC vs. St Mirren FC across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.