Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5) | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Club Olimpia O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Club Olimpia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Club Olimpia (-1.5) | 0% |
| Club Olimpia (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Club Olimpia O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Club Olimpia O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Club Olimpia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Club Olimpia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Club Olimpia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Copa Sudamericana, South America's secondary club competition, will host a fixture between Club Olimpia and CR Vasco da Gama on 20 August at 6:00 PM ET. The market titled "More Markets" invites traders to wager on additional betting options beyond standard match outcomes—typically including player performance metrics, card counts, or specific match events. A YES share represents a bet that the condition settles true; a NO share bets it does not. The settlement window closes at 22:00 UTC on match day, allowing roughly four hours post-kickoff for final confirmation.
Olimpia, based in Paraguay, competes regularly in continental tournaments and has reached Copa Sudamericana finals previously, whilst Vasco da Gama, the Rio de Janeiro club, has won this competition twice (1998, 2011). Historical precedent suggests both sides possess sufficient squad depth and tournament experience to generate varied in-match events—corner counts, substitution patterns, and disciplinary incidents—that secondary markets typically track. The 0% crowd probability reflects either low trader participation at this early stage or genuine uncertainty about which specific markets will be offered.
Traders should monitor official Copa Sudamericana fixture confirmations and team news closer to the date. Injury updates, squad rotations, or venue changes could alter match dynamics and thus the likelihood of specific secondary outcomes. Vasco da Gama's recent domestic form and Olimpia's travel logistics from Asunción will influence tactical setup. The settlement window's four-hour buffer allows for official scoresheets and match records to be published before final adjudication.
Methodology
This page reviews Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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