Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Montevideo City Torque O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Montevideo City Torque O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CA Tigre O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Montevideo City Torque 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Montevideo City Torque 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CA Tigre 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Montevideo City Torque (-1.5) | 0% |
| CA Tigre (-1.5) | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque (-2.5) | 0% |
| CA Tigre (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Copa Sudamericana, South America's second-tier continental club competition, will host a fixture between Montevideo City Torque and CA Tigre on 19 August at 8:30 PM ET. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that additional markets—beyond the standard match outcome, total goals, or handicap lines—will be offered for this specific game. A NO share bets they won't. The settlement window closes on 20 August at 00:30 UTC, giving the market roughly 16 hours after kick-off to resolve based on whether supplementary betting options materialise.
Historical precedent suggests Copa Sudamericana matches of this profile attract modest ancillary market depth. Tier-two South American competitions typically see fewer derivative markets than Copa Libertadores fixtures or major domestic leagues, though liquidity varies by sportsbook and regional interest. Montevideo City Torque, a relatively young Uruguayan club founded in 2017, and Tigre, an established Argentine side, represent mid-table competition rather than headline fixtures that automatically trigger expanded betting menus. The 0% crowd probability reflects scepticism that bookmakers will extend offerings beyond standard lines for this particular encounter.
Traders should monitor sportsbook announcements and platform updates between now and kick-off. Fixture postponements, injury bulletins affecting key players, or unexpected scheduling changes could influence whether operators deem the match worthy of additional markets. Regulatory decisions in Uruguay or Argentina affecting Copa Sudamericana broadcasting or betting eligibility may also shift operator behaviour. The settlement hinges entirely on commercial decisions by the prediction market operator and affiliated sportsbooks rather than on-field performance.
Methodology
We track Montevideo City Torque vs. CA Tigre - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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